Hello Riders, in this edition I will focus on taking a long-term look.
Both Bitcoin and NASDAQ continue below the Weekly Rider Band and with a valid BEAR signal, which clearly indicates that we are still in a Bear Market.
Those two signals are going to be our main guide to determining when the market turns bullish in the long term.
Reviewing historical charts of Bitcoin, we could infer that the bottom is close or has already been reached, however betting on it is always a risk since the macro trend remains negative.
This is where each one, according to their level of risk, decides if they prefer to do DCA or prefer to wait for the bull market again for their long-term investments.
If you decide to do DCA, it is always a good option to do it when the price is low like now but you must understand that it can continue to go down and you must feel comfortable with that.
For now my plan is the same:
- Lower timeframe trades (ideally 4hour and daily chart), aggressive profit taking. (Pay attention to weekly supports for major bounces)
- Optional long term DCA at daily pink, purple macro view indicator colors ideally for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin MONTHLY CHART
These red areas can be seen depending on each individual risk profile as :
- the best buy area: last 3 times rallies started from here
- the moment of greatest risk: technically if an asset is below band it is considered as a possible start of a prolongued bearish market.
NASDAQ and BITCOIN weekly charts:
Both are moving laterally but even below the Rider Band, this generates a lot of divided opinions. The truth is that as long as it is below the Band, the chances of the price continuing to go down are greater than going up.
But, this does not mean that there are very important bounces from which we can benefit, for that we use the small timeframes. In fact, the daily timeframe indicators have been perfect, predicting all the big moves accurately.
Bitcoin Macro View Indicator Update
The colors show that we are having similar action to the previous floors, but we have not yet had pink or purple colors, which leaves room for a possible (not mandatory) major correction.
So if one thinks in the long term, starting to buy now makes sense, as any drop from here in the long term would be insignificant. If you are not comfortable with another possible drop, I would wait for the pink/purple colors to appear for DCA. If they never show up then that's good too, we still benefit from our trading using the other signals.